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Monday, June 8 • 11:40am - 12:30pm
When Do You Want It? Probabilistic Forecasting Anyone Can Do

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Maybe you've heard of Monte Carlo simulation. Maybe you've seen probabilistic forecasting techniques demonstrated or even used. But you just don't understand how it works. This talk is a gradual introduction of these techniques. You need to know nothing about combinations and permutations. You don't need to know how to apply complicated formulas. You need only have the ability to understand the rules to a simple strategy game.

This talk starts off explaining the simplest form of probabilistic forecasting using an example that anyone can follow. We'll then layer on more sophistication (but no complicated math) and discuss the tradeoffs of each approach along the way. In the end you'll have everything you need to understand and make use of probabilistic forecasting.

Learning outcomes:
  • Easily understand Monte Carlo simulation
  • Utilize forecasts that are presented as a probability distribution rather than a single date
  • Understand the advantages of using this approach

Speakers
avatar for Larry Maccherone

Larry Maccherone

DevSecOps Transformation, Contrast
Larry Maccherone is an industry-recognized thought leader on DevSecOps, Lean/Agile, and Analytics. He currently leads the DevSecOps transformation at Comcast. Previously, Larry led the insights product line at Rally Software where he published the largest ever study correlating development... Read More →



Monday June 8, 2015 11:40am - 12:30pm EDT
Ocean Ball II C Ocean Tower upper level

Attendees (0)